Sawa is prediction markets for local outcomes. If Kalshi is the Netflix of prediction markets, deciding what to list, Sawa is the YouTube where anyone lists their own, so people trade what they know.
Current Status
+ Launched June 2026
+ ~1,000 accounts, ~$3K transacted volume
+ 100+ markets at HBS, half user-created
+ Best event: 750 visits, 160 signups, 70 paid trades
+ iMessage agent live across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Sawa
+ 5 campus ambassadors and 2 sports creators signed
+ 2 corporate pilots and 2 institutional LOIs
Problem or Opportunity
Kalshi and Polymarket only list global events, where nobody has an edge. People have an edge on what is closest to them: the campus election, which startup gets into YC, whether a team hits its number. Those markets are not listed anywhere, so the trading happens in group chats, settled on memory, with no price and no record of who was right.
Solution (product or service)
Sawa is prediction markets for local outcomes. Anyone creates a market in seconds by typing or speaking, it prices live, and AI agents plus group voting settle it. Every correct call builds your Sawa score, a public record of what you predicted.
Our agent lives in iMessage. Mention it in a group chat and it finds the best price across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Sawa, or spins up a new market on the spot. No app to download.
If Kalshi is the Netflix of prediction markets, deciding what to list, Sawa is the YouTube where anyone lists their own.
Business model
We take a 2% fee on volume. It is waived now to grow, and turns back on once liquidity carries it.
The math: 100M people trading $1,000 a year is $100B in volume, and 2% on the half that settles on Sawa is $1B a year.
Institutions are a second engine, hedging exposures no exchange lists at far higher volume per user.
